A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
